To quote the conclusion reached in the Report authored by Johan Botha:
The Standard Bank median house price index (5 month moving average) recorded an increase of 1.9% y/y in November, following a decline of 3.1% y/y in October. The more volatile monthly data showed an increase of 13% in the median house price that Standard Bank financed in November. The jump is not the result of higher house prices but rather the outcome of fewer lower priced houses financed by Standard Bank.
Clearly, middle and lower income households find economic and financial conditions extremely challenging, while the tightening of lending criteria by financial institutions makes it more difficult to access finance. It is anticipated that house price growth will be negative over the short and medium term. Over the short term, economic conditions are expected to deteriorate further, but South Africa's intensifying economic slowdown and the positive developments on the inflation front for early next year, suggest that interest rate cuts should not be far off.
Link to December Property Gauge