FNB Property Barometer - July SARB Leading Business Cycle Indicator
FNB - South Africa
After a month-on-month growth spike to +1.8% in June, the SARB Leading Business Cycle Indicator moved back into month-on-month decline in July to the tune of -0.9%. In order to remove monthly data volatility, we also examine the 3-moving average of the Leading Indicator values. On a month-on-month basis, the 3-month moving average also resumed its decline, recording a slightly negative growth rate of -0.07% in July.
The July indicator level would suggest that the impact of the 2nd round of quantitative easing by the US Federal Reserve, has worn thin, and SA’s own leading indicator slowdown broadly tracks the global economic slowdown. Indeed, the Composite Leading Indicator for SA’s major trading partner countries was said by the SARB to be a negative contributor to our own Leading Indicator. Along with this, local Business Confidence and job advertisements were included amongst others as negative contributing factors. One of the positive contributing factors was the “interest rate spread”, which we interpret to point to an increased market expectation of possible interest rate cuts in July. However, this along with commodity price and stock market increases, and M3 money supply growth, being cited as positive contributors, could not wholly offset the negative factors.
FNB Property Barometer_SARB Leading Indicator_September 2011
Investing in property still very worthwhile - provided you know the rules
Rawson - South Africa
Talking at Stellenbosch in a series of “Investment Advice” evenings being organised by Rawson Properties, Tony Clarke, Rawson Group MD, told the 50 people present that history will show that now was a great time to buy into property.
“The question I am most regularly asked,” he said, “is “When will there be a recovery?” I cannot give a precise prediction but I can say that two facts are wholly valid: the first is that booms do not last forever. The second is that neither do recessions. Granted that this is the worst and longest running downturn in SA property since 1976, let us not forget that 1976 was followed by a very healthy upturn period, as has every other recession. Do not, therefore, allow doomsayers to convince you that there will never be a recovery – it will come.”
Those buying now, said Clarke, will benefit from the fact that interest rates are likely to stay low for at least 18, with possibly a 100 to 150 base point rise, but they need to take a longer term view than hitherto. This, he said, probably means that they must be prepared to hold onto what they buy now until 2020. They must, he said, see themselves as investors rather than speculators and they must avoid two of the most common errors in property buying: valuing the property inaccurately and buying properties purely for their long term capital gain rather than for their rental potential.
Rule number one is “Invest in properties where you can earn rental income all year.”
'Gazanging’ rises as home sellers get last-minute cold feet
Telegraph - UK
House sellers are withdrawing their properties at the last minute in increasing numbers in a new phenomenon dubbed “gazanging”.
An estimated 54,000 buyers were “gazanged” in the first six months of this year – with buyers now more likely to be gazanged, where they are left hanging, than gazumped, where a rival buyer’s higher offer is accepted, or to gazunder, where they lower their offer having already had it accepted. A survey suggests one in four sellers changed their mind because they could not find a suitable property to move to, while others got cold feet because of concerns about the state of the housing market.
The number of people pulling out has risen by 20 per cent since last year. One in six said they pulled out because they were fed up with legal complications.
Change Constitution to suit land reform - Nkwinti
Moneyweb - South Africa
Land reform proposals based on ideology not patterns of ownership - Nkwinti.
Cape Town, Sept 20 (I-Net Bridge) - If aspects of the Green Paper on Land Reform are unconstitutional, then change the Constitution, says Rural Development & Land Reform Minister Gugile Nkwinti.
Nkwinti along with his deputy minister Thembelani Nxesi and director general Mdu Shabane presented to Parliament's Portfolio Committee on Rural Affairs and Land Reform on Tuesday on the Green Paper on Land Reform.
Nkwinti replied to a question by Democratic Alliance (DA) MP Lindiwe Mazibuko about the constitutionality of the Land Valuer-General and the Land Management Commission.
He said: "Constitutions are tools that are created to help society move in particular directions. When society gets stuck as it moves forward we must have the courage to review the Constitution and, if needs be, amend it accordingly.
Leave a comment: