Absa House Price Indices - November 2011
Absa - South Africa
The South African economy recorded real annualised growth of 1,4% in the 3rd quarter of 2011, after growing by 1,3% in the 2nd quarter and 4,5% in the 1st quarter of the year. Real growth of around 3% is expected for the full year, forecast to rise only marginally in 2012 against the background of the outlook for the global economy. A poorly performing European as well as US economy will adversely affect South Africa’s exports to these regions, influencing domestic production, employment and household finances.
Headline consumer price inflation (CPI) is forecast to marginally breach the 6% level by year-end and for part of 2012, driven by rising food prices, transport costs and property running costs. Despite headline CPI expected to be above the upper limit of the inflation target range of 3%-6% in 2012, interest rates are projected to remain low for most of next year in view of global economic trends and the possible impact of these developments on the domestic economy over the next twelve months.
Nominal house price growth of around 2% is forecast for the full year of 2011, with price growth expected to remain relatively low in 2012. Against the background of economic developments during the course of next year, the short- to medium-term performance of the residential property market and demand for mortgage finance will be driven by the state of consumer finances and credit records, as well as trends with regard to consumer confidence. In real terms, i.e. after adjustment for the effect of inflation, house prices are set to decline further towards the end of the year and into next year, based on average nominal price growth expected to be below the average headline consumer price inflation rate during this period.
Knight Frank Global House Price Index
Global housing market stagnates
The Knight Frank Global House Price Index, which tracks the performance of the world’s mainstream housing markets, showed zero growth in the three months to September. This was the index’s weakest performance since Q2 2009 and raises fears that it could enter negative territory by the end of the year.
The third quarter saw mounting pressures on the global economy with politicians seemingly helpless to get to grips with the eurozone debt crisis. This has reawakened fears of a double dip recession, not just in Europe but around the world. Unsurprisingly, this economic uncertainty has been reflected in the performance of the world’s housing markets.
The boom conditions experienced between 2004 and 2007 when global housing markets recorded double-digit annual price growth for 16 consecutive quarters are a distant memory. Average annual growth now stands at just
1.5%, despite rises of up to almost 20% in some Asian countries.
Problems cited in housing rental bill
Iol.co.za - South Africa
The Rental Housing Amendment Bill, which will establish a tribunal to resolve disputes in each of the nine provinces, was likely to pass through Parliament by the end of the current financial year, human settlements portfolio committee chairwoman Nomhle Dambuza said yesterday.
The aim is to have a more efficient system of rental dispute resolution between tenants and owners, both for formal and informal housing in urban areas.
In a submission to the committee by Ilze Mathese of the corporate services centre in the legal services division of Western Cape Premier Helen Zille’s office, the province argued that an amendment in the bill was problematic.
Iol.co.za and the Rental Housing Amendment Bill