Property Barometer June 2012
FNB - South Africa
While house price growth on a year-on-year basis accelerated further to 8.9% in June, a loss of month-on-month price growth momentum over the past 5 months suggests that the year-on-year growth peak in the FNB House Price Index is not far off.
Various economic data released in recent months suggest that the housing market is set to head into a “softer patch” again. Economic growth slowed mildly in the 1st quarter of 2012, and various global and domestic data point towards further slowing in the current quarter.
In June, some of the national high frequency data releases also pointed to economic slowing. Real retail sales released for April showed further decline in year-on-year growth to 4.7% on a 3-month moving average basis,from a previous month’s 5.9%. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index declined for the 3rd consecutive month in May. StatsSA manufacturing stats for April showed a mere 0.8% year-on-year growth on a 3-month moving average basis, further down from a 1.2% growth rate in the previous month. And Mining production declined year-on-year by a massive -10.6% in April on a 3 month moving average basis.
While economic slowing, globally and locally, looks as if it is becoming reality, resulting in declining inflationary pressure, and indeed the CPI inflation rate declined in May to 5.7% (from 6.1% previous), the Reserve Bank continues to keep interest rates unchanged since late-2010, thus not yet offering any new stimulus.
All considered, therefore, a weakening economic environment, coupled with no new interest rate stimulus (reduction) to date, suggests that the recent slowing trend in month-on-month house price growth will continue in the near term, and that this will soon translate into slowing year-on-year house price growth.
FNB Property Barometer_June 2012 House Price Index
Rode Events 2012
Rode - South Africa
Dolf de Roos speaks at Rode events
Two speakers from abroad will feature at property economists Rode & Associates’ annual events, to be held in August this year in Cape Town, Johannesburg, Pretoria and Durban. The speakers are Dr Tony Cheng, MD of BMI Appraisal Limited, based in Hong Kong, and renowned real estate author Dolf de Roos, best known for his best-seller Real Estate Riches.
The central theme of these events will be the many uncertainties facing the economy and the property market.
It’s registration time again for Cape Town’s property marketing agents and auctioneers
City of Cape Town
The City of Cape Town wishes to remind all property marketing agents and auctioneers that, from 1 July 2012, they will again be required to register individually with the City for permission to display property marketing boards and directional signage on City-owned property.
For the 2012/2013 financial year, each agent will be required to pay an annual application fee of R698.80 and a display fee of R835.70 (including VAT) for their six permit stickers for the 2012/2013 municipal financial year.
Upon application, the City will issue six permit stickers per agent for the year, thus limiting the number of directional ‘show house’ signs allowed on City-owned property. During the past year, directional boards found with photocopied or counterfeit permit stickers were removed. The by-law does, however, make provision for the withdrawal of permits and the City will prosecute any agent or auctioneer who uses fraudulent stickers.